On May 14, Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections, in just three months after devastating earthquakes in the south of the country that have left millions homeless. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK party have dominated politics for two decades. Elections in 2019, however, marked a shift as they lost Istanbul and Ankara to the opposition, despite all the advantages of incumbency and favourable media coverage. Economic policy has taken an increasingly unorthodox turn under Erdogan, while Turkey's standing in democracy rankings and its relations with Western states are worse today than ten years ago.

Turkey has now reached a fork in the road: will it continue down the path marked out by Erdogan, or move in a different direction? 

Download our latest white paper which our experts consider the factors likely to determine the election’s outcome and consider how economic and foreign security policies may change, depending on whether Erdogan wins another term or not.