The world is confronted by many crises, which will diminish living standards through 2022/23, and threaten food supply across the world and especially in vulnerable regions such as the Middle East and North Africa. Most problems stem from, or have been exacerbated by, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: a humanitarian and refugee crisis; supply disruptions in oil, gas, wheat, and metals; and a sovereign debt crisis for numerous countries.

At the same time, Covid-19 continues to exert a drag – in China due to its zero-Covid policy, which has resulted in factory closures and lockdowns, and in lower-income countries where vaccination rates are still low.

International cooperation is vital to help lower-income households but growing geopolitical division and mistrust are making it more difficult. These are among the many factors sparking a cost-of-living crisis – with governments and world organisations such as the World Bank and IMF now tasked with urgently addressing escalating risks of poverty, political instability, and global unrest.

In this white paper, we discuss: 

• What is the effect of global food shortages threatened by the war in Ukraine?
• What is the impact of supply chain problems, price shocks in strategic commodities, the fallout from Western sanctions and growing geopolitical divisions?
  
• How are Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the United States, Asia and lower-income commodity importers affected by the cost of living crisis?